The Sun, seen in extreme ultraviolet, unleashing a flare and eruption of solar material. Such solar storms can disrupt satellites and power grids on Earth.

Solar Surprises and Gaps in Understanding

Our Sun’s activity follows an approximately 11-year cycle of waxing and waning sunspots, but recent behavior has defied expectations. After a decline in solar activity in the late 20th century, many scientists suspected we were heading for an unusually quiet era—possibly a “grand minimum.” Instead, the Sun surprised experts by surging in activity, reversing the trend for reasons that remain unclear.

For example, the current Solar Cycle 25 has already exceeded earlier forecasts. A barrage of solar flares in May 2024 led to the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades—with auroras possibly the brightest in 500 years. This level of eruption was not initially expected based on previous models. In fact, because the previous cycle was so weak, NASA and NOAA had predicted a similarly mild Cycle 25—a forecast they later acknowledged was a mistake.

Such reversals highlight the fact that even the timing and intensity of the solar cycle cannot yet be perfectly predicted by science.

Part of the challenge is that the Sun’s magnetism operates on multiple overlapping cycles. In addition to the familiar 11-year sunspot cycle, longer rhythms appear to exist. Recent research suggests a possible 100-year fluctuation (known as the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle) may be boosting current activity. If this is correct, the coming decades could bring even more frequent solar storms—though many scientists remain cautious until more data is gathered.

What is clear is that long-term solar trends are poorly understood. As one NASA heliophysicist explained, “longer-term [solar] trends are a lot less predictable and are something we don’t completely understand yet.” In other words, current scientific models have significant gaps, especially when it comes to forecasting solar outbursts years in advance or pinpointing the peak of a cycle before it occurs.

Adding to the uncertainty is the unpredictable nature of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These eruptive events can occur with little warning. While forecasters can monitor emerging sunspots and estimate flare probabilities, they still cannot determine the exact timing or strength of a coming solar storm.

In practice, space-weather prediction has improved only marginally over the past two decades—we remain nearly as in the dark as we were in 2003, when an unexpected surge of Halloween solar storms caught scientists off guard. Powerful flares (which travel at light-speed) and CME shockwaves (which arrive in about one to three days) can trigger geomagnetic storms that disrupt radio communications, satellites, GPS systems, and even power grids. A severe superstorm—similar to the 1859 Carrington Event—striking Earth today could wreak havoc on modern infrastructure, possibly with only a few hours of notice.

In short, the Sun poses real and unpredictable risks, and current scientific models still leave us with blind spots regarding when the next extreme burst might strike.

Advanced Technologies to Confront Solar Threats

Recognizing these uncertainties, researchers are developing cutting-edge strategies to better predict solar upheavals and protect our planet. Three of the most prominent efforts are described below.

Orbital “Solar Shield” for Climate Control

One bold idea is to deploy a giant sunshade in space to deflect a small portion of sunlight away from Earth. This geoengineering concept—known as Solar Radiation Management—aims to offset global warming and climate extremes by slightly dimming the Sun’s energy before it reaches our planet.

In 2023, a group of scientists and engineers established the Planetary Sunshade Foundation to explore the practicality of such a massive project. They propose placing a sunshade at the L1 point—about one million miles from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun. This location would allow a large structure to partially block incoming sunlight.

Research suggests that blocking just 1–2% of the Sun’s radiation could significantly reduce radiative forcing and help keep global temperatures within international climate targets. The structure might consist of an ultralight but enormous screen, or possibly a swarm of smaller reflective units—or even engineered dust clouds—spanning tens of thousands of miles in width.

While launching such mass into space remains a formidable challenge, advances in materials science and launch technology are making the idea more feasible. Initial studies envision leveraging solar sail designs and in-space assembly techniques to build the shade in segments.

Of course, a planetary sunshade brings complex questions: cost, technical maintenance, side effects on weather systems, and international governance. For now, it remains hypothetical. But it represents a striking example of how humanity is beginning to think beyond traditional science to proactively shield itself from the Sun. If climate change reaches crisis levels or solar output becomes erratic, future leaders may seriously consider this cosmic umbrella to help safeguard the Earth.

AI Models for Solar Flare Prediction

In the realm of forecasting, artificial intelligence is revolutionizing how we monitor the Sun. In 2025, NASA and IBM introduced “Surya,” a first-of-its-kind AI model trained on nearly a decade of solar observations. (Appropriately, “Surya” means “Sun” in Sanskrit.)

This neural network studied terabytes of imagery from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory to identify subtle magnetic patterns that typically precede solar eruptions. In testing, Surya was able to forecast major solar flares up to two hours before they occurred—doubling the lead time of previous models. Its short-term predictions—or “future snapshots” of the Sun—were about 16% more accurate than traditional techniques.

Importantly, Surya has been open-sourced, with its code and training data made publicly available to researchers worldwide. The goal is to democratize solar forecasting, allowing scientists and even independent developers to refine the system and adapt it for real-time space weather alerts.

Beyond Surya, teams are applying machine learning in other areas: scanning real-time satellite data for anomalies, identifying early flare signatures, and using computer vision to track evolving sunspots that may erupt. These AI-driven systems can continuously learn from new data, possibly catching precursors that human analysts might miss.

As a result, space-weather agencies may soon issue solar storm warnings with greater lead time and confidence, giving satellite operators, grid managers, and astronauts the chance to take protective measures hours before a blast reaches Earth.

In an era when even minutes of warning can make the difference—such as enabling astronauts to seek radiation shelter—AI predictions are becoming a game-changer in our ability to coexist with an active Sun.

Next-Generation Solar Observatories

To truly close the gaps in our understanding of the Sun, scientists are launching a new generation of solar observatories to get closer to the source.

One flagship mission is NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, launched in 2018. It is flying closer to the Sun than any previous spacecraft, even entering its outer atmosphere—the corona. Parker’s instruments are tracing the origins of solar wind and high-energy particle bursts right at the source. These close encounters are already improving space-weather models here on Earth. As NASA’s heliophysics director noted, “We are witnessing where space weather threats to Earth begin… This new data will help us vastly improve our space weather predictions to ensure the safety of our astronauts and the protection of our technology.”

In 2020, the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission began imaging the Sun’s poles for the first time—a crucial vantage point for understanding magnetic field reversals and the solar cycle. By capturing the dynamics of these polar regions, scientists hope to better understand how the Sun’s internal “dynamo” functions and why the timing and strength of each cycle vary so much. Early findings have already revealed unexpectedly complex magnetic structures during the current cycle’s peak, offering insight into why existing models struggle to predict solar maxima.

Other countries are joining the mission. China’s Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory (ASO-S), launched in 2022, is designed to monitor solar flares, CMEs, and magnetic fields simultaneously—offering a fuller picture of how solar eruptions begin and evolve. India, too, entered the solar science race with its Aditya-L1 mission, launched in 2023 and headed to the L1 point for continuous solar observation.

The common thread across these missions is clear: better observations lead to better predictions. Each probe—whether it’s Parker enduring extreme heat, Solar Orbiter offering new vantage points, or ASO-S providing integrated measurements—adds a vital piece to the puzzle of solar physics. Together, they are building a real-time solar monitoring network, feeding next-generation models, including AI systems like Surya.

Over time, this expanded infrastructure will enable us to detect dangerous solar storms earlier and assess their potential impact with greater precision.

Conclusion: Toward a Safer Solar Future

While our Sun will likely always remain somewhat unpredictable, humanity is no longer flying blind through the solar wind. Scientists around the world are open about the limits of current knowledge. They acknowledge the unanswered questions and the risks of underestimating our star.

Rather than offer false confidence, the response has been proactive innovation—from ambitious engineering concepts like orbital sunshades to innovative AI SEO forecasting and game-changing solar missions.

These efforts reflect a grounded, forward-thinking strategy to deal with cosmic risks. We may not be able to tame the Sun, but we can improve our readiness to face its storms. And as our tools grow smarter and our models more precise, we move steadily toward a future where even our unpredictable star becomes a little more understandable—and a lot less dangerous.

The stakes are high. Protecting our planet’s infrastructure, technology, and climate from solar extremes is now a critical scientific mission—one that could shape the future of life on Earth.

References

  1. Cooper, K. (2025, September 17). ‘The sun is slowly waking up’: Scientists say a rise in solar storms awaits us. Space.com.
  2. NASA. (2024, October 15). NASA, NOAA: Sun reaches maximum phase in 11-year solar cycle. science.nasa.gov
  3. Baker, H. (2025, April 17). A mysterious, 100-year solar cycle may have just restarted — and it could mean decades of dangerous space weather. LiveScience.com
  4. Cooper, K. (2025, September 17). ‘The sun is slowly waking up’: Scientists say a rise in solar storms awaits us.space.com
  5. David, L. (2023, December 19). These scientists want to put a massive ‘sunshade’ in orbit to help fight climate change. space.com
  6. NASA. (2025, July 10). NASA’s Parker Solar Probe snaps closest-ever images to Sun. science.nasa.gov
  7. European Space Agency (ESA). (2025, June 11). Solar Orbiter gets world-first views of the Sun’s poles. esa.int
  8. Wall, M. (2022, October 9). China launches ASO-S satellite to study the sun and space weather. space.com
  9. NASA. (2025, July 10). NASA’s Parker Solar Probe snaps closest-ever images to Sun. NASA Science.

The article was prepared by the editorial team of Pacific Outlier.